Validation / Papers / Kochanek 2023

Deaths: Final data for 2020

Statistics · research paper · epitools (R), through the epi-rates adapter

How to read this page. In this validation, a script plays the scientist. It gives the answers that we wrote before the run, from the methods of the paper. A known value comes from the paper, from a tutorial or from a check that we ran. This page has no combined run of the paper yet.

Run of 9 October 2026, claude-haiku-5-5: 7 of 7 values computed, 7 of 7 correct in the final answer

The paper

Kochanek KD, Murphy SL, Xu JQ, Arias E. Deaths: Final data for 2020. National Vital Statistics Reports 72(10). Hyattsville, MD, National Center for Health Statistics (2023). doi:10.15620/cdc:131355

Related sources:

Klein RJ, Schoenborn CA. Age adjustment using the 2000 projected U.S. population. Healthy People Statistical Notes 20 (2001). Source of the year 2000 standard population weights. link

What it measured

The report presents final 2020 death data of the United States: 3,383,729 deaths, a crude death rate of 1,027.0 and an age-adjusted death rate of 835.4 per 100,000 of the year 2000 United States standard population. It prints age-specific rates of 11 age groups and the age-adjusted rate for each year, each cause of death and each sex.

Data

Tables 2 and 5 of the report: the age-specific death rates per 100,000 of 11 age groups for all causes in 2020 and 2019, for diseases of heart in 2020, and for males and females in 2020. The year 2000 standard population is in the fifth column. catalog/epi-rates/data/make_fixtures.R writes the CSV file and fetch.sh copies it. Size: 55 rows, 3 kB.

License: Public domain. All material in the report is in the public domain and carries no restriction. The data are aggregate rates and hold no data of persons.

Data source

The instruction

A script sends this message as the scientist.

ScientistDid the age-adjusted death rate of the United States rise from 2019 to 2020, and how do men and women compare? Give the age-adjusted death rate of each group with the direct method, the ratio of 2020 to 2019 and the ratio of the male rate to the female rate.

Basis: The abstract and Table 1 of the report. "The age-adjusted death rate ... was 835.4 deaths per 100,000 U.S. standard population, an increase from 715.2 in 2019." Table 1 gives 998.3 for males and 695.1 for females.

The decisions

The model asks questions during a run. A script gives these answers to the questions of the model. We wrote the answers before the run.

**Table 1 |** Answers that a script gives to the questions of the model.
Decision	Value	Source
Rate multiplier	`100000`	The report gives all rates per 100,000.
Significance level of the intervals	`0.05`	Not in the report. The usual level. The tool gives no interval for a table of rates.
Interval of a rate or a proportion	`exact`	Not in the report. The benchmark does not use the choice.
Interval of the rate ratio	`midp`	Not in the report. The benchmark does not use the choice.
Exposure or treatment wording	`exposure`	Not in the report. The benchmark does not use the choice.
Time horizon of the risks	`not stated`	Not in the report. The benchmark does not use the choice.
Exposure prevalence for the population attributable fraction	`sample`	Not in the report. The benchmark does not use the choice.
Direct or indirect standardization	`direct`	The report adjusts the death rates by the direct method (Technical Notes).
Standard population for direct standardization	`us2000_11`	The report uses the year 2000 United States standard population in 11 age groups.
Interval of the standardized ratio	`exact`	Not in the report. The direct method does not use the choice.
Source of the reference rates	`not applicable`	Not in the report. The direct method does not use the choice.
Other questions of the agent	`Use the values in the decision record.`	Not in the report. The benchmark answers a free question with this text.

Known values

The tolerance is the largest difference from the known value that we accept. We set it before the run. Exact: the number must be the same.

**Table 2 |** Known values for Kochanek 2023.
Value	Known value	Tolerance	Source
`adjusted_all_2020`Age-adjusted death rate, all causes, 2020 Source of the known value Printed in the paper. Independent check: yesWhere: Abstract and Table 1, all origins and races, 2020, age-adjusted death rate 835.4.Check: check.py standardizes the printed age-specific rates of Table 5 with NumPy and gives 835.4200 (check.out).Note in the list of known values: NVSR 72(10), Table 5 and Table 1; check.py	835.4	± 0.1	Printed in the paper. Independent check: yes
`adjusted_all_2019`Age-adjusted death rate, all causes, 2019 Source of the known value Printed in the paper. Independent check: yesWhere: Abstract and Table 1, 2019, age-adjusted death rate 715.2.Check: check.py gives 715.2437 (check.out).Note in the list of known values: NVSR 72(10), Table 5 and Table 1; check.py	715.2	± 0.1	Printed in the paper. Independent check: yes
`adjusted_heart_2020`Age-adjusted death rate, heart disease, 2020 Source of the known value Printed in the paper. Independent check: yesWhere: Table 5, diseases of heart, 2020, age-adjusted rate 168.2.Check: check.py gives 168.1926 (check.out).Note in the list of known values: NVSR 72(10), Table 5; check.py	168.2	± 0.1	Printed in the paper. Independent check: yes
`adjusted_male_2020`Age-adjusted death rate, males, 2020 Source of the known value Printed in the paper. Independent check: yesWhere: Table 1 and Table 2, males, 2020, age-adjusted death rate 998.3.Check: check.py gives 998.3367 (check.out).Note in the list of known values: NVSR 72(10), Table 1 and Table 2; check.py	998.3	± 0.1	Printed in the paper. Independent check: yes
`adjusted_female_2020`Age-adjusted death rate, females, 2020 Source of the known value Printed in the paper. Independent check: yesWhere: Table 1 and Table 2, females, 2020, age-adjusted death rate 695.1.Check: check.py gives 695.0589 (check.out).Note in the list of known values: NVSR 72(10), Table 1 and Table 2; check.py	695.1	± 0.1	Printed in the paper. Independent check: yes
`ratio_2020_2019`Ratio of the age-adjusted rate of 2020 to 2019 Source of the known value Independent check: we calculated itTool: ratio of two printed age-adjusted rates (835.4 and 715.2)Where: The abstract prints both rates. The ratio is not printed.Check: 835.4 / 715.2 = 1.1681. check.py gives 1.16802 from the unrounded standardization.Note in the list of known values: 835.4 / 715.2 from the printed rates; check.py gives 1.16802 from the unrounded standardization	1.168	± 0.003	Independent check: we calculated it
`ratio_male_female`Ratio of the age-adjusted male rate to the female rate Source of the known value Independent check: we calculated itTool: ratio of two printed age-adjusted rates (998.3 and 695.1)Where: Table 1 prints both rates. The ratio is not printed.Check: 998.3 / 695.1 = 1.4362. check.py gives 1.43633.Note in the list of known values: 998.3 / 695.1 from the printed rates; check.py gives 1.43633	1.436	± 0.003	Independent check: we calculated it

Latest scored run

Model: claude-haiku-5-5. Runs for each paper and model: 1. Blind mode: on. Status: answer. 69 s. Computed: 7 of 7 values. Reported: 7 of 7 values. The result file is bench/results/papers-2026-10-09-epi-haiku.md. This run is not in the totals of the page of papers.

Computed: a logged number is within the tolerance. Reported: the final answer states the value, as the claim check measures. The table copies the cells of the result file.

**Table 3 |** Items of the run of claude-haiku-5-5.
Item	Expected	Computed	Reported
`adjusted_all_2020`Age-adjusted death rate, all causes, 2020	835.4 ±0.1	pass 835.42 (n1 metrics.adjusted_rate_all_2020, entry 36)	pass 835.42 via tolerance (n3, claim check 86)
`adjusted_all_2019`Age-adjusted death rate, all causes, 2019	715.2 ±0.1	pass 715.2437 (n1 metrics.adjusted_rate_all_2019, entry 36)	pass 715.24 via tolerance (n2, claim check 86)
`adjusted_heart_2020`Age-adjusted death rate, heart disease, 2020	168.2 ±0.1	pass 168.1926 (n1 metrics.adjusted_rate_heart_2020, entry 36)	pass 168.19 via tolerance (n2, claim check 86)
`adjusted_male_2020`Age-adjusted death rate, males, 2020	998.3 ±0.1	pass 998.3367 (n1 metrics.adjusted_rate_male_2020, entry 36)	pass 998.34 via tolerance (n3, claim check 86)
`adjusted_female_2020`Age-adjusted death rate, females, 2020	695.1 ±0.1	pass 695.0589 (n1 metrics.adjusted_rate_female_2020, entry 36)	pass 695.06 via tolerance (n3, claim check 86)
`ratio_2020_2019`Ratio of the age-adjusted rate of 2020 to 2019	1.168 ±0.003	pass 1.168022 (n1 metrics.rate_ratio, entry 36)	pass 1.168 via tolerance (n3, claim check 86)
`ratio_male_female`Ratio of the age-adjusted male rate to the female rate	1.436 ±0.003	pass 1.436334 (n2 metrics.rate_ratio, entry 45)	pass 1.436 via tolerance (n3, claim check 86)

Notes

Triage notes by the maintainers

The text below is from the triage notes. We show it as the maintainers wrote it.

Entry numbers (eNN) are ids in the log.jsonl of the session folder. Classes: a = tool or adapter fault, b = harness fault, c = benchmark spec fault, d = model fault.

claude-haiku-5-5 (blind, adapter 0.1.0): 20261009-035954-67da, 69 s, 7 tool calls (0 failed), computed 7/7, reported 7/7. Report: bench/results/papers-2026-10-09-epi-haiku.md.
Leak check: 0 paths outside the allow list, 0 blocked, 1 unsourced claim.

Run	Item	Class	Cause	Fix
1	standard_population	d	The model first asked for the standard `custom` with the file column std_pop_2000. The decision record fixed `us2000_11`, so the harness overwrote the argument (1 deviation, 1 overwritten). The values are the same, because the column holds the same weights.	none. The model then checked the weights of the column against the tool result.
1	unsourced number 1000000	d	The answer gave the total of the standard weights. A script of the model printed the total (e47), but the claim check could not link it.	none. The number is in the log.

Other findings:

The model did not give the epitools version. The reporting rules ask for it.
The referee warned that the headline states a rise with point estimates only. The tool gives no interval for a table of rates. The expected file says so.